Wednesday, November 05, 2008
The People Have Spoken
Posted by
Rich Hayden
@
11/05/2008 09:18:00 AM
Labels: ARM refi, bailout, debt consolidation, district of columbia, ELECTION, fannie refi, Fixed Rate Mortgage, Freddie Mac, freddie refi, home equity, MCCAIN, mortgage, northern virginia, OBAMA, virginia
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Strange Days Indeed....Most Peculiar, Mama! (John Lennon)
Wow, we are in a wicked, wild and weird time!!!!!!
We're in a very strange time, folks. It's almost comical to hear what we're hearing on the radio, in the papers and on the TV. Seriously. Something to think about - The Fed is attempting to be savvy and creative in its ways to help the financial system get back on track. However, there is simply no one who can draw upon past experience to find answers here. We are in uncharted territory due to the complexity of the financial instruments that are unravelling. Not trying to scare anyone - just telling the truth (what an idea?!)
This situation is historic...and we are living through it. It is almost comical to hear the utter stupidity that comes out of the mouths of some of the politicians who are paraded in front of the cameras...I can't help but think that we actually elected these people. There is a lot of panic out there. People are very worried about their life savings. Is money in the bank safe? How about if it is in a life insurance policy? How about in bonds? Unfortunately the answer is no, no, no.
Yesterday, the panic reached a level that caused such a demand on US Treasury instruments, that the total return of some short-term paper went negative. That's right...the premium paid was higher than the return provided by the yield. So keeping your cash under the mattress is better than an investment in some Treasuries, and apparently safer than the financial market!!!
Suddenly, guess what may become the most attractive way to protect your money? Think about it...you can touch it, get a tax break, live in it too. Yes, Real Estate is starting to look pretty good, especially since it has become more reasonably priced.
The Fed has come to the rescue lately, but all these "bailouts" and programs to help faltering companies is hard to sustain. They can't save everybody because money will run out. As mentioned previously, the Fed has been very creative. But eventually, the money and creativity could run out. And the Fed may need to actually print money - this would be highly inflationary....very bad stuff. Let's hope it doesn't get to this, as that would be very bad for rates...which, of course, I (and so should you) care deeply about. We sure are living in interesting times!!!
In this morning's economic news, weekly Initial Jobless Claims increased by 10,000 to 455,000 claims, meeting expectations, as workers were displaced by Hurricane Gustav in Louisiana. The four week moving average of continuing claims rose by 29,750 to 3.46 million to remain near a five year high. All in all, this report suggests continued weakness in the labor market.
In a bid to ease the credit crunch and restore a sense of calm in the financial markets, the Federal Reserve authorized a $180 billion expansion of its swap lines with other world central banks. The funds, which will be provided by the Federal Reserve, can be injected into money markets through overnight and term loans. Stocks are liking this news so far and this is pressuring Bonds.
Leading Economic Indicators were reported at -0.5%, in line with expectations. Philadelphia Fed Index was up 3.8, far better than expectations of -10. Stocks strengthened momentarily on the surprisingly good Philly Fed number.
Mortgage Bond prices are trading sideways in a volatile 100bp range, with overhead resistance at $101.47 and support below at $100.50. Most clients can continue to float, but VERY carefully during these wild times.
I will keep you posted!
Rich Hayden
Mortgage Banker
703.926.4646 - p
Posted by
Rich Hayden
@
9/18/2008 10:52:00 AM
Labels: AIG, ARM, ARM refi, bailout, debt, debt consolidation, district of columbia, fannie refi, Fixed Rate Mortgage, Freddie Mac, freddie refi, home equity, Merrill, mortgage, northern virginia, virginia
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Fed Day Taking Second Place to AIG Worries
Jeez-Louise! What a ride we're having!!!! Last week it was Fannie & Freddie. Yesterday it was Merrill & Lehman. Today...it could be AIG. These are watershed changes of seismic proportion. Really, really amazing stuff. In the turmoil, though, there is opportunity. From 2 weeks ago through today, we've seen certain loan programs provide an interest rate drop of nearly 1 full percentage point. That is HUGE for people looking to buy a house or refinance their current home. That change hasn't been without incident, though. It's been a very volatile ride down in the bond markets and it continues to be today (read on).
So, what's going on today? Well, today it's supposed to be Fed Day...but that isn't the big story at the moment. Right now, all eyes are on insurance giant AIG, which is in very serious trouble. The company is in desperate need of around $75 Billion and it has until today to shore up this capital, otherwise it could face bankruptcy. This story is far reaching as AIG is a worldwide company, with $1 Trillion in assets and operating in 130 countries. Think about this - AIG provides insurance in all facets of life, from car to life insurance - and should AIG go bankrupt, claims around the world would not get paid - that is scary to imagine. We will all see what happens in the next several hours as this story develops.
At 2:15pm ET, the Fed will release its interest rate decision and policy statement. Up until the last few days, there wasn't much of a chance for a Fed Cut - but as of this morning, the Fed Funds Futures are saying there is a 100% chance of a .25% cut and a 50% chance of a .50% cut. This is really amazing. We won't know for sure what will happen until later today - but with mounting issues in the financial sector, the Fed may just cut in an attempt to restore a sense of calm in the global financial markets. Should the Fed cut, Mortgage Bonds probably won't like this action because of its inflationary effects. Mortgage Bonds have already traded in a fairly wide 35bps range. The volatility in the market continues.
The headline Consumer Price Index for August was reported at -0.1%, meeting expectations and representing the first monthly decline since October 2006. When stripping out volatile food and energy, the Core CPI rose 0.2%, also meeting expectations. The Overall CPI year over year increased 5.4% and the Core CPI year over year rose 2.5%. With the report meeting expectations, the Fed may be feeling better about inflationary threats and this could help them justify a rate cut later this afternoon....again, probably not good for mortgage rates.
I really hope the Fed doesn't cut, as they did when they panicked in January. We are just starting to see signs of inflation moderating, oil prices receding and the US Dollar strengthening. A Fed Cut would likely disrupt those nice trends. Should the Fed not cut - Mortgage Bonds may likely move another leg higher, but should they cut - we could see prices give up some of their recent gains. I do expect mortgage bond prices to move higher in the longer-term, but a Fed Cut today could provide a speed bump and possible retracement in prices.
KEEP MY NUMBER HANDY FOR ALL OF YOUR HOME MORTGAGE PLANNING NEEDS:
703.926.4646
Rich
Posted by
Rich Hayden
@
9/16/2008 10:50:00 AM
Labels: AIG, ARM, Economy, Fannie Mae, fannie refi, Fixed Rate Mortgage, FRE, Freddie Mac, freddie refi, home equity, Lehman, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch
Monday, September 15, 2008
Lehman Fails, Merrill Sold, Fannie & Freddie Rescued - How Can This Be Good?
The headlines certainly portend a very dicey time for the world economic system. However, at a very personal level, these watershed events can be good (in the end) for you and me - the average consumer. How, do you ask, can seismic disruptions to the world financial market benefit you?
Let's take a look at the bigger picture. You and I live our daily lives in what we can call "The Real Economy." That is to say, we spend the money in our wallets to buy tangible "stuff" every day like food, clothes, gas, etc. We operate our finances in a pretty simple way, too. It's basic, spend less than you make so that your have more than you need at the end of each day. Otherwise, you go into debt. Either you can service (pay for) that debt, or you can not. If you can not, you go bankrupt. It's really that simple. Large financial institutions operate in more of an economy of the ether (air). In that they buy and sell futures, derrivatives, futures on bets on what the federal reserve will do, long term bonds, short term bonds, corporate bonds, government bonds, municipal bonds, school bonds, etc., etc., etc. Some of these things are real what I would call "real" like stocks, real estate and bonds. Other instruments, though, are more "in the ether" and where this all comes unwound. Instruments like derrivatives, futures and the like are bets on what things "should" do - and by their nature - contain much more risk. Now, I'm watering this down a LOT - so, those of you reading who will take issue, your objection is duely noted.
All that said, we will see more banks and brokerages fail. As taxpayers, we will feel some pain from this as the US Government will (and already has) participated in the mop-up that ensues watershed events such as these. The bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers comes in at a whopping $613,000,000,000.00 (BILLION with a B). That dwarfs the previous filing of Worldcom in 2002, Enron in 2001 and Drexel Burnham Lambert in 1986. How can this be good? When these events unwind, the initial period is often akin to a REALLY bad case of the flu. You feel sick to your stomach, there's no end in sight, you can't sleep...there's just nothing that good about it. When the dust settles, there are fewer players in the game. The rules have typically been reset in such a way that new controls are in place to keep some of the bad things from happening again in the future. And, some unexpected good things will happen. For instance, mortgage rates will come down as a result of this as investors - both individual and institutional - seek the relative security of long-term bond investments vs. riskier hybrid and stock investments.
Along with that, the fall of one or two more big players in the financial services sector will be good for the larger economy in time. Sometimes you can have too much of a good thing. Too many players doing the same thing in the same space with the same money leads to a house of cards being built up....which has to fall. Today, we see the fall of two giants in the form of Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers. Stay tuned, it's just going to get more interesting from here. As Neil Peart says..."Adventures Suck When You're Going Through Them!"
We will look back at these times as an adventure - perhaps not an enjoyable one - but, an adventure none-the-less. Look for rates to move lower this week...which could actually spur positive activity for the housing market....which, is good for the broader US Market....see, a silver lining!
Posted by
Rich Hayden
@
9/15/2008 07:35:00 AM
Labels: AIG, debt, debt consolidation, Fannie Mae, fannie refi, FNM, FRE, Freddie Mac, freddie refi, home equity, interest rates, Lehman, Lehman Brothers, mortgage, northern virginia, refinance, virginia
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Struggling homeowners could get new government-backed loans
By JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS, Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON - Homeowners staggering under mounting mortgage debt and facing foreclosure could get cheaper, government-backed loans under Democrats' housing rescue plan.
But first, lenders would have to agree to wipe out part of their debt. And the borrowers would have to show they could afford the new mortgage. They also would have to agree to share any future profits on the home with the government.
The plan would be a massive expansion of the Federal Housing Administration, the Depression-era mortgage insurer. FHA would take on $300 billion in new loans for as many as 1 million distressed homeowners, most of whom otherwise wouldn't qualify for a government-backed loan.
Taxpayer dollars would be at risk should borrowers default on their new mortgages. The FHA, however, would have some non-taxpayer money to cover losses. The agency would collect a 3 percent fee on the refinanced loans, as well as annual 1.5-percent premiums, and share a portion of borrowers' future proceeds if the property is refinanced again in the future or sold.
The measure by Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., the House Financial Services Committee chairman, is scheduled for a committee vote this week and is expected to move through the House in early May. A similar bill is taking shape in the Senate. The Bush administration is backing the same concept, although on a much smaller scale.
By relaxing FHA standards, Frank's bill would allow a whole new swath of homeowners who are currently too financially strapped to qualify for a government-insured loan to do so. That includes people who are badly behind on their mortgage payments, have poor credit and hefty debt, and those who owe more than their homes are worth.
It's unclear how many would qualify, however, even under far looser FHA standards. Also an open question: whether mortgage servicers would agree to participate in the voluntary program.
Today, a homeowner who has fallen behind on the mortgage might get a chance to work with his loan officer to lower the payments to an affordable amount. A homeowner who couldn't keep up would likely face foreclosure.
Frank's two-year program is designed to offer another option that would let borrowers keep their homes and give mortgage holders a chance to get a heftier chunk of what they're owed than they would with foreclosure. Typically, mortgage holders lose up to 40 percent on foreclosures.
To take part, a loan officer could contact an FHA-approved lender, who would calculate the terms of an affordable mortgage the borrower could be expected to repay. If the existing mortgage holder agreed to take a substantial loss — he would get no more than 85 percent of the home's value and pay FHA fees and closing costs — the FHA lender would pay off the loan.
The new, fixed-rate loan would be for no more than 90 percent of the home's value.
The idea behind the plan is that mortgage holders could do better accepting a loss now in exchange for getting a delinquent borrower off their hands than they would if they went to foreclosure. In some cases, however, a homeowner will be so financially strapped that the lender would stand to lose too much from the deal and would opt to foreclose instead. Critics say mortgage holders would have little incentive to participate in any case, because they would have no chance of recovering a substantial chunk of what they're owed. To qualify, borrowers would have to be devoting at least 35 percent of their monthly pretax income to a mortgage payment on loans originated before Jan. 1, 2008.
With the new loan, FHA could allow a borrower's total monthly debt load — including student loan, credit card and car payments — to reach as high as 55 percent of monthly net income if he made at least six months of timely mortgage payments on the original mortgage. That's a substantially looser standard than the agency's current 43 percent limit. Homeowners also would have to share with the FHA any profit or gain in any future refinancing or from selling their homes. FHA would get at least 3 percent of the original loan amount when the borrower sold or refinanced. To discourage borrowers from using the program to quickly "flip" their house for a profit, FHA would reap all of the proceeds if the sale or refinance was within a year. That percentage declines 20 percent annually.
The plan is aimed at homeowners hit by the double whammy of the credit crunch and housing downturn. Many of them have subprime loans that are resetting at much higher rates, and can't sell or qualify for a new loan because — due to slumping housing prices — they owe more than their homes are worth. That is known as being "underwater."
"It won't help everybody, but would help some people who are stuck. They can't sell or refinance because they're under water. They've gone to their servicer and cannot get a modification of their loan. Now the only option is to lose the house to foreclosure," said Eric Stein of the Center for Responsible Lending, a nonpartisan research and consumer advocacy group.
The program would only be open to owner-occupied properties; not second homes or investment properties.
Architects of the plan believe mortgage holders would likely give their borrowers broad guidelines for who might qualify for the new program, rather than decide on a loan-by-loan basis.
Key elements of the program will be decided by a new oversight board comprised of officials from the Federal Reserve and the departments of Treasury and Housing and Urban Development. One major task of the board will be to figure out how to compensate those who hold secondary claims on a home, who would walk away with no more than 1 percent of the home's value
Posted by
Rich Hayden
@
4/22/2008 07:48:00 AM
Labels: bankruptcy, credit cards, debt consolidation, district of columbia, federal reserve, fha, financial planning, guru, home equity, interest rates, maryland, mortgage, rich hayden, virginia
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Will The Feds Get Policy Toward Mortgage Lending Right?
The simple answer is - who knows? It's a pretty complex and derrivative answer to come up it.
I've gotten A LOT of questions over the last 7-14 days asking me what is happening to cause mortgage interest rates to change so dramatically from where we were on 1/23/08. So, I put on my best John Maynard Keynes (famed 20th century British Economist) thinking cap and would like to share the following ideas with you...with a little bit of Rich Hayden flavor!
In short, things are pretty whacked. At the moment - based on where we've moved to, I don't see the likliehood of a return to the mid-5's for conforming 30 year fixed rate mortgage for a while (possibly late spring).
The following chart shows you what has transpired over the last 3 months back into late November. We've had 2 Fed rate cuts. The biggest key about those rate cuts is that the actually cause an INCREASE in long-term rates (30 year fixed) 60%-70% of the time. Why? Because that rate-cut has an INFLATIONARY impact on the broader economy by making it cheaper to borrow money. 
When people and companies can borrow more cheaply, the producers of the goods/services that those entities buy are inclined to raise the prices they charge. This is inflation. Gas, food, heat, electricity - all are in an inflationary mode right now (unless you're living under some enormous rock with your own economy). So, when inflation is an issue in the economy, long-term bonds (30 year mortgages) tend to get less "expensive" and have a higher yield (interest rate) for the purchasers of those bonds. Why? Because when the Fed Funds rate is so low, the "long-term money" has to compete for investors. To try to lure more investors to them, the bond issuers (Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac) must INCREASE the yield to make the investment profitable and attractive to the investor. We've already established that the yeild is the equivalent of the interest rate. So, you can see how this works. Fed cut = mortgage rate increase = Inflation. Inflation is a bond instruments WORST enemy. It will almost always drive the yield (interest rate) on that bond HIGHER - which, ultimately causes inflation to subside. WHAT? Yes, when things get too expensive (mortgages, cars, food, etc.) people buy less. Producers eventually have to lower their prices (see bonds above) to attract buyers - then the economy expands.
So, what you're seeing is that the Fed's activity of lowering the "Fed Funds Rate" - which is the shortest term rate on the market (the "term" on Fed Funds is 1 day, whereas your mortgage is 30 years), is having the negative impact of actually CAUSING greater inflationary pressures. Okay, that's actually pretty simple to figure out. But, we're in a bit of a Twilight Zone period economically that we haven't really seen since the mid-70's. You won't see this term in the broader media for a little bit, but, it will come about. Afterall, there is still wide-spread belief that we're not quite in a recession. Well, make no mistake about it, we're in a recession...and have been for nearly 2 months. Anyway, we have entered into a period of "Stagflation" in the economy.
This means the broader economy is suffering from inflation and stagnant economic growth (recession) at the same time. So, we combined the words in the early 70's to create "stagflation". Why this is imporant relative to our ideas about home mortgage finance and home selling is because we've got a real quandry on our hands in trying to forecast what's going to come about. What we have now vs. the 70's (oil embargo and manufacturing slow-down) is a declining housing market. We did not have that factor @ that time - at least not to the extent that we do today. So, we're into uncharted territory from an economic policy perspective and lawmakers are trying to "fix" housing - which means they are likely to hurt it as a result as most lawmakers are not economists. I don't mean that to submarine the efforts of our elected officials. Rather, it's pretty well accepted that markets are self-correcting and government intervention "typically" doesn't create economic sollitude. This is not to suggest that I am opposed to intervention.
That said, where do I think this is going? I EXPECT that long-term rates (30 year fixed) will see a bit of a rally in the spring once the most recent "fiscal stimulus package" signed by the President 2 weeks ago actually goes into effect. At that point, we should have better rates to work with. The question at that point will be what type of underwriting guideline changes will be in effect.
I hope this makes sense. It's a bit of a ramble. But, I think it's very important for EVERYONE to understand what the factors are behind this stuff so that you know it's not just some kind of "puff-here's your rate" type of idea-set. My clients are wondering if they should refinance or buy, when should they buy, how much should they buy and what they'll need to have to do it with. The answer to the question is evolving and will continue to be a fluid answer.
This information should rarely be looked upon as negative or glum. Rather, it's an analysis of data. Within that data is the power to positively impact outcomes. Historically, the greatest financial triumphs come out of the greatest failures. The key, then, is to understand the underpinnings of the system so that you can use its NEW growth to your advantage!
If you're trying to figure out what this all means to you and your financial profile - then give me a call. We will work through it together and you can get it going the way it should be so you can be an example, not a statistic.
Your Friend,
Rich Hayden
Financial Coach
rahaydenjr@yahoo.com
703.773.8409 - p
P.S.: Have a friend who could be helped by this info? Why not forward this on to them? That's what friends are fore!
P.P.S.: Starting to plan for college? Ask me how I can help.
P.P.P.S.: Ask me about the Debt Melt Down (TM) Plan and how you could become 100% debt free...including your mortgage...within 9-11 years!
P.P.P.P.S.: If this has reached you at an undesirable address, please respond with "Update My Email To: rahaydenjr@yahoo.com and I will update your email accordingly.
P.P.P.P.P.S.: Want to receive a copy of my most recent newsletter in PDF format? Respond with "NEWSLETTER" in the subject line and I will forward it to you today!
Posted by
Rich Hayden
@
2/27/2008 11:47:00 AM
Labels: bankruptcy, credit cards, debt consolidation, district of columbia, federal reserve, fha, financial planning, guru, home equity, interest rates, maryland, mortgage, rich hayden, virginia
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Time - Friend or Foe?
Financial Coach
Posted by
Rich Hayden
@
2/19/2008 08:31:00 AM
Labels: bankruptcy, credit cards, debt consolidation, district of columbia, fha, financial planning, guru, home equity, maryland, mortgage, ric edelman, rich hayden, virginia
Monday, February 11, 2008
$100,000,000.00
I've come to the conclusion that I am now worth MORE than $100,000,000.00 as of this morning. I was looking at my portfolio and had been very frustrated because I have been working on breaking through the $100,000,000.00 level for a long time and I just couldn't get over the hump. What triggered it?
I'll gladly tell you - my latest UK Lottery notice in my email inbox! I finally got THE ONE notice that pushed me over the top. I've now either WON millions in world-wide lotteries, or been GRANTED millions from various fallen African government ministers so that I now have more than $100,000,000.00 in BOGUS wealth. Man, I gotta tell you, I was pumped!
What's wrong with this story?!
WISHES are great. They really are. We all need to wish for things. We need to dream. We need to think big. We have to look at the world through the unfiltered eyes of a child to be able to visualize the future we want to create. Stick with me here, because this is the most important thing. See, we have to go beyond the WISH to start to define things by first turning them into GOALS. Then, we need to turn that GOAL into reality through PLANNING.
In the 20th Century, Winston Churchill & Dwight D. Eisenhower both famously told us that Plans, in and of themselves, are not important. But, the ACT of PLANNING is everything. It is essential.
You see, this is where it all comes together. I don't care if you make $3.65 per hour working @ Wendy's, or if you make $365,000.00 in base salary as the CEO of your own company. If you don't begin PLANNING what will happen with that money - both income earners will end up at the EXACT same place...looking back on opportunity and fortunes missed. It really doesn't matter if a person is currently flush with cash, living paycheck to paycheck or bankrupt. If they don't have specific goals and a planning process to help them achieve those goals - they'll never reach any kind of success financially.
One part of your plan is understanding your DEBT. Knowing how to lever it, how to use it...and most importantly - HOW TO GET RID OF IT!!! I have THREE distinct ways that I help people just like you eliminate their DEBT in time frames that they find hard to believe. I use methods that the big banks use. I use their own tools against them to make them FINANCIALLY FREE.
Here's the great thing. FINANCIAL FREEDOM is well within EVERYONE's reach during their lifetime. But, they have to look back on the steps I've laid out in this blog to get beyond the WISH phase. Get in into the GOALS phase...then get their butt PLANNING now.
There are now less than three week until I turn 40. You can bet that I've got some GOALS set up for the coming years. You can also bet that I am PLANNING every day to turn my WISHES into REALITY via the achievement of my GOALS. What about you? Are you ready to get going? Are you finally fed up with being handed YOUR reality rather than creating if for yourself?
If you are, then give me a call @ 703.773.8409 to get started building your FINANCIAL FREEDOM today. Or, for a copy of my FREE REPORT: "How To Literally Melt Down Your Debt, And Discover What the Banks and Big Credit Card Companies DON'T Want You To Know" - call 1-888-267-0280 x 8600 and I'll get it out to you in the mail.
Your Friend,
Rich Hayden
Financial Coach
rahaydenjr@yahoo.com
703.773.8409 - p
P.S.: Have a friend who could be helped by this info? Why not forward this on to them? That's what friends are fore!
P.P.S.: Starting to plan for college? Ask me how I can help.
P.P.P.S.: Ask me about the Debt Melt Down (TM) Plan and how you could become 100% debt free...including your mortgage...within 8-10 years!
P.P.P.P.S.: If this has reached you at an undesirable address, please respond with "Update My Email To: rahaydenjr@yahoo.com and I will update your email accordingly.
P.P.P.P.P.S.: Want to receive a copy of my most recent newsletter in PDF format? Respond with "NEWSLETTER" in the subject line and I will forward it to you today!
Posted by
Rich Hayden
@
2/11/2008 08:24:00 AM
Labels: bankruptcy, credit cards, debt consolidation, district of columbia, fha, financial planning, guru, home equity, maryland, mortgage, rich hayden, virginia
Thursday, February 07, 2008
The Year of The Rat
The Chinese Year of the Rat should be a good one for those who are committed to getting out of debt.
Posted by
Rich Hayden
@
2/07/2008 07:47:00 AM
Labels: bankruptcy, college savings, consilidation, credit cards, debt, district of columbia, fha, financial planning, home equity, maryland, mortgage, northern virginia, retirement, rich hayden


